424
FXUS65 KVEF 090510
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1010 PM PDT Mon Sep 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Fall-like system brings breezy winds, cooler temperatures, and dry
  conditions to the Desert Southwest this week.

* Dense smoke and poor air quality will return for the Owens Valley
  each night through midweek as a result of the Garnet Fire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday.

Afternoon high temperatures will be right around seasonal normals
today, making today the hottest day of the forecast period. Heights
will gradually fall as a fall-like trough approaches the Pacific
Coast over the next few days, deamplifying the monsoonal high. As a
result, pressure gradients will tighten with a southwest flow aloft,
bringing gusty southwest winds and dry conditions to the region
through the week. The exception to the dry conditions will exist
along the Sierra Crest as well as portions of the southwestern Great
Basin, where modest moisture coupled with lift and daytime heating
may result in an isolated shower or thunderstorm. As such, slight
precipitation chances (5-20 percent) exist for our northwestern
zones Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures bottom out late-week at
6 to 10 degrees below seasonal normals before recovering through the
weekend as the system jogs east.

The Garnet Fire east of Fresno is around 53,000 acres with around 15
percent containment. North-northwesterly winds brought dense smoke
down the Owens Valley last night, with visibility at the Eastern
Sierra Regional Airport (KBIH) dropping below 2 statute miles for
much of the overnight period and poor air quality observed on area
sensors as far south as Olancha. Southerly winds this afternoon have
improved air quality and visibility substantially. Barring any
substantial changes to fire behavior, the Owens Valley can expect a
repeat of dense smoke, poor air quality, and low visibilities each
night through midweek.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Southwest winds tonight will generally remain around 8-
10KT, with lighter winds possibly. Much like today, breezy south to
southwest winds are expected again Monday late morning through the
afternoon. South winds will gust to around 20KT, then turn southwest
and increase to around 25KT after 20Z. Winds are expected to
diminish after sunset Tuesday, however, while gusts will end there
is  higher confidence that wind speeds will remain elevated at 10-
15KT Tuesday evening after 03Z through the night,  will remain
elevated around 10KT. VFR conditions with temperatures under 100F
expected through the TAF period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...North winds will
continue to push smoke into the Owens Valley tonight. Moderate
confidence in the BIH TAF as visibility restrictions and occasional
low CIGs due to smoke continue through the night. Improvement in
conditions is possible Tuesday morning, but could improve a bit
earlier than what occurred this morning. Smoke and impacts should
return Tuesday evening as winds turn north and push smoke back into
the area. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected overnight across the
region with typical overnight wind patterns persisting. Breezy south
to southwest winds return Tuesday late morning and afternoon with
gusts to 25KT areawide. Gusts will end around sunset at all
locations except around KDAG as gusts over 20KT are possible through
the night. &&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Nickerson


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NWS Flagstaff Office