374
FXUS65 KVEF 181722
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
922 AM PST Thu Dec 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Mild and calm conditions continue through Friday.

* Precipitation chances return to western portions of Inyo and
  Esmeralda counties over the weekend while the rest of the area
  remains dry.

* Confidence in rain and snow impacts around Christmastime is slowly
  increasing, but uncertainty remains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Wednesday.

Low amplitude ridging holds through Thursday, transitioning to more
zonal flow on Friday. This keeps the weather quiet and warm, with
highs continuing to run 10-15 degrees above normal. Dry conditions
prevail as afternoon breezes generally stay in the 10-20 mph range.

Late Saturday through Monday, a plume of moisture is forecast to
impact the central and northern Sierra. The zonal nature of the flow
should result in most of the moisture/precipitation being
intercepted by the mountain range. PoPs in our portion of the Sierra
range from 20-50%, increasing with latitude. Meanwhile, the northern
Owens Valley and western Esmeralda County have 20-35% PoPs.
Precipitation in the valleys will likely be pretty light (75% chance
of less than 0.25"), while the Sierra is likely (75%) to remain
below 1.00". Snow levels stay at or above 9000 feet throughout most
or all of the precipitation, so concern of winter impacts is low.

Global ensembles continue to advertise a deep trough off the
California coast during the middle of next week. Southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough axis will draw up anomalous moisture into the
region. Barring a significant change in track, the mountains will
fare well precipitation-wise. Precipitation amounts in the valleys
will depend on the strength of the system and moisture trajectory.
Given the warm, southwesterly flow, not anticipating snow levels to
be that low, but locations above 7000 feet will certainly have the
potential of seeing winter impacts. Depending on the system`s
evolution and track, wind impacts may be on the table as well. All
this to say, keep an eye on the forecast over the coming days as
details become more clear and confidence increases.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will continue to follow typical diurnal directional patterns through
the forecast period, with speeds remaining under 8KT. VFR conditions
will prevail, with periods of high clouds AOA 20 kft filtering
through the area.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...With the exception of
IFP, winds will remain under 12 knots and will tend to follow
typical daily directional trends with periods of light and variable
winds. IFP will see breezy north winds with gusts around 20 knots
possible through the afternoon, dropping off later this evening. VFR
conditions will prevail through tonight, as bands of high clouds
stream over the region, with bases remaining AOA 15kft AGL.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            THU, DEC 18  FRI, DEC 19  SAT, DEC 20
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      72(1939)*    68(2024)*    73(1981)
Bishop         72(1999)*    69(1985)*    71(1972)*
Needles        75(2024)*    76(2024)*    76(1981)*
Daggett        80(1998)     76(1950)*    78(1981)
Kingman        74(1980)     76(1917)     74(1917)
Desert Rock    69(2024)*    69(2024)*    69(2020)
Death Valley   86(1998)     75(1950)     79(1999)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       THU, DEC 18  FRI, DEC 19  SAT, DEC 20
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      48(1962)*    55(2010)     50(2010)*
Bishop         38(2010)     48(1999)     42(1981)
Needles        57(2010)     58(2010)     61(1901)
Daggett        50(1980)*    48(1980)*    52(1981)*
Kingman        46(2010)*    49(2010)*    51(2010)
Desert Rock    45(2024)*    50(2010)     45(2010)
Death Valley   58(1914)     56(1914)*    65(1999)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/CLIMATE...WOODS
AVIATION...Stessman

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office